Race, 2

Although Obama seems to have opened a lead in most polls, the nagging question of what effect his race might have on the election leaves the outcome of this race even more in doubt. Herewith are some thoughts on the effects race may play. First, many of you have probably heard of the Wilder effect, named for Douglas Wilder who ran for governer of Virginia in 1992. He was, according to the polls, about 10 points ahead a day before the election and yet won by a small fraction of the vote (less that 1%). There is also the Bradley effect, named for Tom Bradley who, in 1982, ran for mayor of Los Angeles. Again, he was up 10 points a day before the race and yet lost by a few percentage points to his Republican opponent. Looking more closely at these polls, however, reveals that both effects, attributed to covert racism by voters, probably had other causes. In Wilder's case, his internal polls showed him only 2 points ahead and sinking in the polls. Further, issues related to gun control had surfaced and his opponent had painted him as too liberal on gun regulation. A similar effect was found in the Bradley race. Here again gun control was the issue and there was a very large turnout of Republicans, far beyond what been expected, that turned that race around. One thing pollsters have difficultly measuring generally is who is actually going to show up at the polls. You can ask people if they are likely to vote but unless the sample that is polled is exceptionally large, turnout is difficult to predict.

But back to race in 2008. According to some recent research, since the late 90s, race has played a small and in most cases negligible role in elections. Harold Ford of Tennessee, an African-American, running in 2006 was 3 point down in the polls before the election. He lost but exactly 3 points. A survey several hundred races at the state and federal level from 198 through 2007 shows that, while there was a Wilder effect in the early 90s, by the mid 90s it had disappeared. There is a general front runner effect which is conflated with race. That is, any front runner suffers a loss a shrinking of the lead in the actual election (a good reason for Obama supporters to be cautious). In other words, if you compare black and white front runners, they both lose points when the votes are actually counted.

Why exactly did the Wilder effect disappear in the mid 90s? One theory is that it coincided with the welfare reform act of 1996 which limited the amount of time any could be on welfare and made some efforts to move people on welfare into jobs. Since "welfare" had for many decades been a code word for "race", the "resolution" of the welfare issues reduced the impact of racialized dialogue, where welfare masquerades as race. One can imagine that if welfare or some other coded word for race were to emerge as an issue, then we might see the emergence of a Wilder effect again. However, it just may be that, at least in this cycle, other issues simply overwhelm race.

This brings me to Obama. It seems to me that, in the current context of extreme economic uncertainty, with a discredited Republican president, with 85% of the country saying we are going in the wrong direction, the real issue is not that people are concerned about his race (although, goodness knows, there are more than a few people who are overtly racist) but trying to find reasons to make themselves vote for this strange young skinny guy with a funny name. His performance in the debates and his appearance of being very steady, relaxed, calm, and consistent (by in large) with his statements of policy may be turning the corner for him, although I'm not ready to declare the race over by a long shot. A recent article in the New York Times puts it this way: "The question is not whether race is a factor but whether it is a DETERMINATIVE factor--whether Obama's being black is a disqualifying fact for some white voters or whether it has now been reduced to one of those surmountable obstacles that any candidate has to overcome." So I close the way I began: Sure, race matters, but is not the ONLY thing that matters.